[ppml] Policy Proposal 2007-15: Authentication ofLegacyResources

On Thu, 26 Jul 2007, Paul Vixie wrote:


> within a couple of years, IANA will have no more space to give ARIN
> and the other RIRs, and shortly after that moment, ARIN and the other
> RIRs will have no more space to give ISPs and LIRs.  the common name
> for this is "IPv4 pool depletion" and there is no controversy or
> disagreement as to the inevitability of that depletion.

There is no data associated with these claims. As Lord Kelvin said, 
"your knowledge is of a meager and unsatisfactory kind".  

Can the ARIN staff report on the past rate of delegation (in total IP
addresses and in total blocks, year by year, and the current year month
by month?

Of course, everything runs out eventually. However, there are things
that we can do to prolong that time as long as possible.

	Delay in Assignment Processing of Requests
	Smaller Assignments
	Tougher requirements

If ARIN (and IANA) adopt a policy of measuring the rate of delegation
against the expected depletion time at the current rate, and adjust the
above parameters so that depletion will not occur for, say, 10 years,
then we will see an exponential decreasing rate of delegation, but we
will never run out of address space.  Certainly not in the next 20 or 30
years, after which time we can expect that IPv6 is the preferred
protocol, and we will never run out of IPv6 space.

No more than the expected amount of IP addresses can be assigned in a
given year. Pending requests would be delayed to the next year, and then 
assigned in the next year's policy to achieve 10 year depletion.



		--Dean
	


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