ARIN-PPML Message

[ppml] RIPE 2005-01 - Last Call for Comments (HD-ratio Proposal)

to continue the thread

From: Randy Bush <randy at psg.com>
To: Geoff Huston <gih at apnic.net>
Cc: address-policy-wg at ripe.net
Subject: Re: [address-policy-wg] 2005-01 - Last Call for Comments (HD-ratio Proposal)
Date: Wed, 22 Feb 2006 07:00:43 -1000

> I trust that this report is helpful in terms of assessing some of the
> impacts of the proposal.
> 
> ...
>
> From the simulations of registry allocations, the use of an HD Ratio of
> 0.96 for IPv4 address allocations made by the RIPE NCC is predicted to
> increase total address consumption by 46% over the existing flat 80%
> utilization allocation policy framework.

YIKES!!!!

and, aside from that, how was the play, mrs. lincoln?

randy

-----

Date: Thu, 23 Feb 2006 07:59:02 +1100
To: Randy Bush <randy at psg.com>
From: Geoff Huston <gih at apnic.net>
Subject: Re: [address-policy-wg] 2005-01 - Last Call for Comments
  (HD-ratio Proposal)
Cc: address-policy-wg at ripe.net

At 04:00 AM 23/02/2006, Randy Bush wrote:
> > I trust that this report is helpful in terms of assessing some of the
> > impacts of the proposal.
> >
> > ...
> >
> > From the simulations of registry allocations, the use of an HD Ratio of
> > 0.96 for IPv4 address allocations made by the RIPE NCC is predicted to
> > increase total address consumption by 46% over the existing flat 80%
> > utilization allocation policy framework.
>
>YIKES!!!!
>
>and, aside from that, how was the play, mrs. lincoln?

I was also surprised by this number when I first saw it in the output.

Looking behind this 46% number, the outcome is a result of the amplified 
effects of the HD Ratio for large allocations. 50% of this increased 
address consumption is in allocations of /9 and /10 prefixes, which only 
account for 1% of all actual allocations, but 20% of the allocated addresses.

The other effect is a shift from /16 to /15 allocations in this HDR regime 
- /16s and /15s together contribute a further 15% to this increased address 
consumption.


Here's the table that shows the shifts when using the HD Ratio

(fixed width font will help here)

Prefix  RIPE NCC        Equivalent
         Allocations     Allocations
         2000-2006       0.96 HD
         (Relative %)    (Relative %)

/24     23.04   23.23
/23     12.09   11.37
/22     8.16    7.87
/21     4.76    4.85
/20     19.64   16.33
/19     14.97   15.21
/18     6.85    8.58
/17     3.56    4.39
/16     4.36    3.88
/15     1.18    2.39
/14     0.66    0.86
/13     0.38    0.5
/12     0.18    0.28
/11     0.13    0.15
/10     0.03    0.09
/9      0       0.02
/8      0       0

Power of        Address Address 
Difference      Relative                Relative        Relative
2       Span    Span            Difference              Address Address
         Actual  HDR                             Span    Span
                                                 Actual  HDR
8       5898    5947    49      0%              0%      0%
9       6190    5821    -369    0%              0%      0%
10      8356    8059    -297    0%              0%      0%
11      9748    9933    184     0%              1%      0%
12      80445   66888   -13558  -2%             4%      2%
13      122634  124600  1966    0%              7%      5%
14      112230  140575  28344   3%              6%      5%
15      116654  143852  27197   3%              6%      5%
16      285737  254280  -31457  -4%             15%     9%
17      154665  313262  158597  19%             8%      12%
18      173015  225444  52429   6%              9%      8%
19      199229  262144  62915   7%              11%     10%
20      188744  293601  104858  12%             10%     11%
21      272630  314573  41943   5%              15%     12%
22      125829  377487  251658  30%             7%      14%
23      0       167772  167772  20%             0%      6%
24      0       0       0       0%              0%      0%

Total   1862005.76      2714237.44      852231.68 


--------

From: Randy Bush <randy at psg.com>
To: Geoff Huston <gih at apnic.net>
Cc: address-policy-wg at ripe.net
Subject: Re: [address-policy-wg] 2005-01 - Last Call for Comments
  (HD-ratio Proposal)
Date: Wed, 22 Feb 2006 11:35:26 -1000

> I was also surprised by this number when I first saw it in the output.
> 
> Looking behind this 46% number, the outcome is a result of the amplified 
> effects of the HD Ratio for large allocations. 50% of this increased 
> address consumption is in allocations of /9 and /10 prefixes, which only 
> account for 1% of all actual allocations, but 20% of the allocated addresses.
> 
> The other effect is a shift from /16 to /15 allocations in this HDR regime 
> - /16s and /15s together contribute a further 15% to this increased address 
> consumption.

i.e., this is what the conservatives and smaller folk have been
intuiting all along, the big players get more than a fair (as we
think of it today) share and the small folk lose.

grrrrrrrr.

could we please add ppml at arin.net to the cc:s?  thanks.

randy


-------

Date: Thu, 23 Feb 2006 08:29:30 +1100
To: Randy Bush <randy at psg.com>
From: Geoff Huston <gih at apnic.net>
Subject: Re: [address-policy-wg] 2005-01 - Last Call for Comments
  (HD-ratio Proposal)
Cc: address-policy-wg at ripe.net

I should correct a typo in the note below.

Under the HD scheme /9 and /10 allocation will account for 0.11% of the 
actual allocations, not 1% as I said below. This correction probably 
amplifies the comment that its the small number of large allocations that 
are critical in assessing the total impact of the HD Ratio framework.

thanks,

    Geoff





>I was also surprised by this number when I first saw it in the output.
>
>Looking behind this 46% number, the outcome is a result of the amplified 
>effects of the HD Ratio for large allocations. 50% of this increased 
>address consumption is in allocations of /9 and /10 prefixes, which only 
>account for 1% of all actual allocations, but 20% of the allocated addresses.
>
>The other effect is a shift from /16 to /15 allocations in this HDR regime 
>- /16s and /15s together contribute a further 15% to this increased 
>address consumption.

-30-