ARIN-PPML Message

[ppml] Policy Proposal 2005-1: Provider-independent IPv6

> So I don't think it is unreasonable to think on the agressive side that
> there might be fairly good adoption of IPv6 by 2013.  My projections 
show
> 1.3M routes by 2013...

The unreasonableness is that you are thinking on the agressive
side looking at worst cases. However, you are not allowing for
the fact that remedial actions can be taken during the 7 year
period leading to 2013. Nor are you recognizing that the economy
does not grow linearly but in fits and starts. There is likely
to be another downturn like the dotcom crash or the Asian flu
(economic crash in 1997). In fact, it may indeed be caused by
an epidemic of an Asian flue virus.

So your argument boils down to saying that there is a
POSSIBILITY that bad things will happen in 7 years if
we pass this policy and then DO NOTHING from now on.
I simply cannot imagine any way for ARIN to stop making
policy changes from now on, therefore I find your argument
very weak.

I would love to see some real numbers where there is
an attempt to look at best case, worst case and
most likely case, because then I can make my own
judgements about what to do in order to track the best
case numbers rather than the worst case ones.

--Michael Dillon